The Trump Gambit Putin Did Not See Coming

Will It Happen Again?

There used to be said, mostly in Russia and mostly for the consumption of the American political establishment, that it really did not matter who would be coming to rule from the White House after the last American national elections. According to the Kremlin (the author of such a story), there would be no real changes to be expected in the US-Russian relations, whether Kamala Harris, or her opponent, Donald Trump, would turn out to be the winner as the outcome of those elections.

According to Moscow back then, the American-Russian relations were going to continue to be as abysmal as they had been under the Biden government, after having begun to take a downward turn under the first government by Trump, who did as much as he could not to differentiate himself from the Obama government, who had in his own time taken concrete steps to build up on the lie Bill Clinton had got the Russians to buy from him, about NATO never moving “one inch East.” But, by God, how much things have changed in the relations of the US and the Russian Federation--- and in such a short time! They are now virtually eating out of each other’s hands.

And all it took was a gambit by Trump, which Putin did not see coming.

That chess move will be explained in full. But let us for now keep moving on by noticing how reports keep being issued by the Kremlin, on an almost weekly basis and throughout the duration of the thirty days it lasted, that in contravention of the agreement reached by Americans and Russian negotiators, the Ukrainians have not and never did keep themselves to the terms agreed, but rather went on launching attacks on the Russian energy installation, just as they had been doing before the truce was came in force.

Concerning the Ukrainian violations, it is worth here to also notice that, to the last one of them the American and British geopolitical analysts I personally follow and from whom I have been learning so much about the ongoing Russian and Ukrainians conflict, seem to reflect in their discussion the Kremlin’s bemoaning about the Ukrainians "disrespecting" Trump by continuing to send drones and long-range missiles toward the other side of the Ukraine fences, as often hitting civilian tenements killing non-combatant Russians. Should the reader be interested in knowing the names of the analysts I have been learning so much from since the conflict first broke up, listed in the chronological order I found them on YouTube, they are Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christophorous, from The Duran; Brian Barletic from The Atlas; Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter, and Col. Douglas McGregor, (all four of them frequent guests of George Napolitano's, host of Judging Freedom. To the list I must also add Col. Daniel Davies, from The Dive, hosted by himself. Independent and impartial observers they all seem to me to be and in an even degree, expert all of them observers on the subject, which I am not, as far as I know none of them has however given any consideration to the likelihood that the Russians could be wrong in bemoaning Ukraine's outright refusal to observe the American-Russian agreement. Nor has any of them to my knowledge gone as far to even insinuate that the Russians might bear some of the responsibility for the Ukrainian continued shelling and droning their oil and gas installations.

In my view, however, it was Russia, the Kremlin by another name, who created the diplomatic circumstance that has allowed for the violation of the truce by the Ukrainians continued attack on Russian territory for those thirty days since the agreement. Unwittingly as it was, the Russians created the diplomatic circumstance and the alibi fabricated which in the eyes of an impartial observer makes it legit for the Ukrainians to continue and even to accelerate their terrorist campaign deep inside Russia.

Just consider that, despite the vast diplomatic experience the Russians undoubtedly possess; despite them being well-seasoned, and masterful strategic negotiators, it is transparent to anybody willing to see it, that the Russians made a not negligible mistake in their talks with their Americans counterpart.
You see, independently of whether Zelensky would have continued carrying out his terrorist campaign inside Russia as he has been doing even without the Russians-American energy sparing agreement, which we can be sure of, once the agreement was set in place the Ukrainians had not legal reason not to go on with their terrorist campaign. Pointedly, in choosing not to negotiate with the Ukrainians directly, but with the Americans instead, the Russian created the diplomatic circumstance for the Ukrainians, which in turn gave way to an alibi which they have wisely exploited. In that scenario, maybe plotted by the Americans but realized by the Russians, Zelensky and his Neo-Nazis were not legally obligated to pause the attacks. For, to honor the truth, it was never the case that the Ukrainians authorities put the Americans formally and legally in charge to represent them at the negotiations table set up by the two superpowers. Rather, the case was that the Americans usurped from the Ukrainians the authority to substitute themselves for Zelensky’s men for the purpose of negotiating with the Russians. That is starkly clear.

But, who knows--- maybe that was just a “tactical mistake" a lá Russie,
if something alike can be conceived of. And yet and unlikely as it sounds, unless the Kremlin was in turn absurdly fabricating an alibi for itself to self-justify bemoaning and complaining to the Americans about the Ukrainians, we must attribute such a "mistake" as responding to calculated tactics by the Russians, to ends which maybe shall remain unknown to us. May that as it be for the moment, to an objective observer it is inescapable that the Russians only accomplished to set the Americans as judges over themselves thereby, making the future of their relationship depend on the former. That is to say, the success of negotiations between the two parties have been made to depend on whether the Americans would believe the Russians that it is Ukraine, and not themselves, who have not been respecting the energy-sparing agreement. If the Americans are ready to believe the Russians on this point, then the American-Russian negotiations would advance further and their relations would grow stronger. But, if the Americans refuse to believe the Russians and decide instead to believe the Ukrainians denials on this respect, the opposite should be expected. Yet, there was never a material need for the Russians to set the Americans to be the judge of the truth on this point. After all, it is not as if the Americans lack the technological means to check on the Ukrainians, to ascertain for themselves what is taking place on the ground; as the Russians themselves know, the Americans have been using those technological means against them from the beginning of the armed conflict, and even before that.

Although as I just said above, the definitive answer shall maybe remain unknown outside the Kremlin, one must ask oneself why have the Russians set the Americans as the judge to establish a verdict over the veracity of their claim. One must ask, because, at least for this writer it was clear that the best course of action when the talks between the two superpowers first started, was to commit themselves to direct negotiations with the Ukrainians, on the conditions that the Ukrainians would first repel the self-imposed prohibition to negotiate with the Kremlin as long as president Putin remains in power.

All the efforts of the Russians should have been concentrated on achieving that. Russian efforts should have been focused for the time being on making the Americans take upon themselves the difficult, multilayered complexity and complication of bringing Zelensky willy-nilly to sit down with the Russians, trying as the task would have proven to be for the Americans. Successful at that, then the Russians would have given themselves a free hand to continue warring and to even accelerate the escalation of their warring, without however needing to enter in an agreement which the Russians knew beforehand the Ukrainians would not observe, and which the Americans were not ready to enforce on behalf of the Russians— or if you will, for obtainable peace.

Alas! The Russians would have had much to gain had them proceeded as enunciated above. Had them saddled the Americans with the task and responsibility to force Zelensky to repeal the law, or what have you, that forbids negotiation with Russia until after regimen-change had been successful at the Kremlin (in addition to the physical elimination of Mr. Putin, the ultimate aim of such a prohibition), the Ukrainians would have had to acquiesce, or else. Either the Americans would have managed to persuade/forced Zelensky to withdraw his opposition to Ukrainian negotiation with Putin's Russia, in which case he would have been utterly humiliated, with the further attendant ominous consequence for his physical wellbeing, courtesy of his Neo-fascist pals. Or, on the other hand, after failing there, the Americans would have found in their failure the justification and the ideal alibi to push Zelensky off the stage, and to clean up the way of the obstacle he and his Europeans backers will always represent for the American goals vis-a-vis Russia—whatever those goals may happen to be.

But, even if just in analysis, it sounds like a certainty that, had the Kremlin taken the route of letting Washington itself solve the Zelensky problem, completing the utter destruction of the remaining Ukrainian militants from the newly-re-acquired Russian territories by the Russian Army, would have showed itself to the Kremlin as the most immediate military task before it. For, that would have dispelled the likely false impression the West keeps getting about Russia being bugged down and “state-mated” in those four battlefield regions. The overall importance of this task resides on such a misperception being the main reason that Kiev and its European masters go on believing they still have a chance. In deference to them, one must admit that it looks like the Kremlin has not made up its mind about how it wants this war to end, and when.

Since that was not the direction taken by the Kremlin, the question now becomes: Why did the Russians let this literally once-in-a-lifetime opportunity pass by— an opportunity so pregnant with possibilities? The most likely answer here, at least from the standpoint of this writer, is twofold; or as you will, there are two likely answers, which are inextricably related. They go as follows. Despite public pronunciations by Mr. Putin to the contrary, the Russians had been secretly rotting and raring to be again in speaking terms with the Americans. One knows that by paying attention to the alluvia of praises showered on Trump by Putin and the Kremlin as soon as he came back to power. One would guess that to themselves, the Russians explain their sweet-talking of Trump as a means to get their bilateral relationship "back on track," because they are pursuing to reestablish "normal" relations with the US, relations broken down by the Biden administration. That, in the official Russian phrasing, “is good for the world.” Supposedly.

Thus, the Russians have been showering praises on Trump in the pursuit of normal relations with nation which, at the level of both government and society, continues to give proofs of abnormality. And thus, by dint of somewhat embarrassingly showering praises on Trump, the Russians prepared the state of play in which Trump opened with the gambit Putin did not see coming. Ironic for a nation where practically every male is a chess master ins potens.

The Trump gambit happened when the Trump government finally admitted that, as the Russians have been claiming from the beginning and all throughout the war, the Ukrainians have been fighting a proxy war on behalf of and surely for the exclusive benefit of Washington. That admission, truth to be told, was something the Russians have been literally dying on the battlefield to hear the Americans say it. So pleased with themselves did such an admission made the Russians, that ever since the Kremlin has been proposing to enter into every kind of business deals with Trump (regardless whether China might be secretly annoyed by the Russian predisposition to accommodate the Americans). But then, their exaltation blinded them, and nobody at the Kremlin saw the other dimension of the Trump gambit.

It was by admitting that the Ukrainians have been fighting a proxy American war that the Trump government could in turn claim legitimacy to place itself also vis-a-vis the Ukrainians, as the bona fides negotiator with an intrinsic right to displace Zelensky and the Europeans thereof, who in any event have been reluctant to talk to the Russians. Of course, in my understanding, the Americans had, as people here say here, more than six ways from Sunday to force both Zelensky and his European masters to sit down at the table across the Russians. But doing something toward that end does not fit together with American immediate and long-term interests in that part of the world. By talking face-to-face to the Russians, the Americans hope and will eventually expect that the Russians will either be neutral, or even sympathetic to Washington's interests, when the push comes to shove with China. It is probably that the Kremlin has not yet realized that Trump considers a privilege he bestows on those he talks with.

And so, after the Trump Gambit, the Kremlin gave up pressing the Ukrainians to make it legally actionable to hold direct negotiations between the two parties, a move which, as I already tried to explain, placed the Americans as the judge of the validity or not of the Russians' accusation against the Ukrainians.

But, why? Tactically, the Kremlin might have sought to push the European Union to the side, in which case finding the way, making the Americans see it was worth-the-while for them to prefer hanging out with Russia rather than with the Europeans, who anyway, Trump does not like much— and neither do they him. On the other hand, getting alone with the Americans, e.i. with Trump, is the surest way to avoid a nuclear clash between the two superpowers and their respective allies. Or so does the Kremlin appear to believe. For, such an assumption by the Russians derives from a limited understanding of the psychology and character of the political establishment and the structure of the centers of power of the Americans. The Americans, I would like to be able to explain directly to the Russians— whatever the circumstances, the Americans care only about winning and are psychologically motivated by winning drives. That will always remain the ruling motivation of the national psychology of the Americans. No matter how close the Russians may believe they can get to Trump and his people, if ever the Americans see an opening, they will take it. If they should ever conclude that they can nuke Moscow without any or with only minimal harm to themselves, they will go ahead. The Americans are ever too aware that, as we say at home, the winner takes it all. Thus, the US must be always the winner.

As for the Russians—they are a noble people, to be sure. And yet, nobility has an Achilles Heel called "naivete."

You see, the noble individual as well as the noble classes, in dealing with others they tend to naively assume their counterparts are also guided by the same motivations of nobility and principles, as they themselves. And so, the Russians have often enough been naive enough in their relationship with the West. That is how one day, the Soviet Union's ashes still warm after its dissolution, the noble naivete of the Russians persuaded them that if the Americans promised they would not move "one single inch" to the East, toward the Russian borders, they could be taken at their word and a deal with them could be sealed with a simple handshake. No contract, no formal agreement, and no signatures needed. But maybe, just maybe and as likely as not, that was not the real problem that eventually led to where we are now.

For, another day decades away from the dissolution of the Soviet Union and already transformed or transitioned into the Russian Federation, the Kremlin came up short in relation to its vast diplomatic experience. This time around, during the Minsk negotiations face-to-face with the Ukrainians and their European masters, there might have been handshakes, as matter of polite form. But what sealed those negotiations was a formal bilateral understanding, to which the name of the city where it was signed was given, and voila, the Minsk Agreement was born.
Yet, here again the Russians stamped their consent and signature to it never suspecting, never questioning or doubting, and having not the foggiest inkling that the parties they had been negotiating with had no intentions whatever of ever keeping their word. And in effect. It took Zelensky's European masters and perpetrators of this major operation of diplomatic camouflage to admit to the world the militaristic operation which they had been negotiating toward. Or in more poingnant words, the former German and French highest representatives admitted that the Russians had, as matter of deceptive fact, given their consent and signature to the present war. Only then, after Fraud Merkel and Monsieur Holland came clean about their dirty betrayal of their trust, did the Russians realize what had happened to them back at the negotiation table: they had been had and taken for a ride. And so, here we are.

True to be told, that was not a gambit, but it surely was the chess equivalent of a bait-and-switch scam at a Netflix level.

Alas! What these two not randomly selected episodes of modern Russian history reveal, is that though overabundant on everything material, spiritual, physical, and intellectual which the gods could blessingly bestow on a nation and a people, the Russians at the Kremlin are still lacking. Namely, they lack what the American spying services call "intelligence," not to be confused with the Russian's very own "intelligentsia," as some might be miscued to do. How to explain to oneself otherwise the Russian Army showing up around the skirts of Kiev in 2022 expecting the Ukrainian government to easily surrender, maybe with the minimum resistance, in an era of advanced aerospace spying technology and a country fighting a war for the Americans, with all the attendant military consequences to follow?

It is as if someone forgot to remind the Kremlin that Kiev 2022 was not Prague 1969, nor Kabul 1979. Not to sell themselves short, when it comes to Russian probity and expertise in negotiations here the problem that arises is not that Fraud Merkel of Germany and Monsieur Holland of France lied. The real problem is that the Kremlin walked into those negotiations blindly and full of trust in the fabled and ultimately mythic "German honesty," and just as they did in getting to the skirts of Kiev, their very competent spying gears were of no avail, if even deployed at all, as a way to ascertaining themselves of the veracity of what they were being sold at the table. But then again, the Russians did not even set out to find out by themselves how much they are hated by the Western powers. Not knowing that in time and in details is the more costly failure on the Russian, and that is entirely on them.

Now, what do these two instances suggest to an impartial observer? First, apparently, the Russians have grown "shy" on spying and gaining "intelligence" even on those forces who, like the Ukrainians, never hid their ferocious disposition to inflict the upmost harm on the Russian Federation and its people. Or else, some in the Russian spying network have not been conveying to their superiors all they know, and have betrayed themselves through betraying their Motherland: for the Western establishment there are not Good Russians; not really. Second, apparently, the Russians are lacking great instinctive psychologists among the Kremlin's intelligence, as they have not proven themselves able to read and delve into the inner core of those parties they sit down at the negotiation table— whether to sign agreements, or to exchange handshakes with. One can but conclude that the Dovstoyevsky's DNA, the genetic stuff of such a masterful dissector of the human mind and soul, and incidentally also the illustrious ancestor of all the Russians of today, has gone missing from the Kremlin That could be pregnant with ominous outcomes…

As the negotiations between the Russians and the Americans shall go on, as a friend of Russia and the Russian people, this writer here is legitimately afraid that Trump could once again make a gambit move which Putin will, again, not see coming.